The other day the Orioles made a massive trade with the Rays for right-handed pitcher, Shane Baz. It’s okay if you don’t recognize the name and not just because he’s only toiled for Tampa as a major leaguer. Regardless of the metrics you use, he’s underperformed relative to his early prospect status.
Originally this post was going to be about what this trade means for the rest of baseball or rather the teams still in the market for a starting pitcher under team control (under contract and attainable through a trade), but instead it’s going to be about the transitory nature of prospect status.
In parts of four ML seasons, Baz has only put together one year with noteworthy production (31 starts and 166,1 innings). Some suggest that his 4.87 ERA doesn’t warrant the steep price the Orioles paid Rays get: OF Slater de Brun (O’s No. 6 prospect per MLB Pipeline), C Caden Bodine (O’s No. 10), RHP Michael Forret (O’s No. 11), OF Austin Overn (O’s No. 30), 2026 Competitive Balance Round A Draft pick (No. 33 overall selection). God’s honest truth, I’m not familiar with any of these guys, but on the surface, it seems a little high for a non-top of the rotation arm. Someone I respect, has questioned Bodine’s effort and maybe he’s already lost some luster.
Regardless, the Orioles have deemed the five players to be expendable. It doesn’t matter if Baz doesn’t live up to expectations (as it’ s happened before). It all might be movement of pawns for my enjoyment (as a fan of offseason trades) or to get things going. When prospects get traded, the experts recalibrate each team’s prospect rankings, but if nobody has reached the big leagues, it’s all theoretical.
As seemingly the only fan in he world that questions the alleged wisdom of the Tampa front office, I don’t know if their brain trust got the most out of Baz in his time there. They might have maximized the return for him, but he is not a finished product no matter what anyone says. People presume that everyone walking through the Rays locker room emerges as a hero of the Marvel universe.
Each of the players involved will be given long leashes and likely can succeed. However, I’m not going to concede actual success until I see it. There are no guarantees in sports, no matter what round you are chosen.
All this being said, I’m happy that the two teams made the move as it provides knuckleheads such as myself the opportunity to weigh the merits of the trade and how it will impact future trades and the likelihood of the Cubs trading for an established starter.
