Everybody loves a sure thing, especially if they have a few bob on it. However, guessing what is to be a sure thing is more difficult than anyone would like to admit. The only things that are sure in my world are my starting the day with an iced tea and my choice of bacon. Everything else is up for grabs.

I had to laugh this morning as two supposed betting gurus were discussing the current favorites in the races for the various postseason awards were shaking out. As someone who follows the ROY races every year, I’ve never bet a dollar on the award winners, but I do presuppose who might win.

At the beginning of the year, most of the smart money was on Jackson Holiday of the Orioles and Wyatt Langford of the Rangers, yet now neither has a chance at all. Throw in Jackson Chourio of Milwaukee for the NL counterpart. Heck, many of last year’s top rookies are undergoing the sophomore slumps that we hear about.

As I’ve pointed out in the past, when writers make preseason picks, they often miraculously vote for those guys later in the year even if they are undeserving. Hmmm. In the case of the professional touts, they change their picks throughout the season with little impunity for integrity. I don’t trust any of them and wouldn’t spend my hard-earned money based on their tips.

I will happily concede that everyone’s preseason choice for AL CY, Tarik Skubel has lived up to the hype and odds. It’s neat to see a guy pitch so well for a middle of the pack team in a smaller market, Detroit.

And as someone who doesn’t bet on such things, it’s more enjoyable to see guys emerge from nowhere to outperform their expectations. Some people see the ROY award as a predictor of future success instead of rewarding a qualified player for an exemplary season notwithstanding the Bob Hamelin’s of the game.

We’ll see if either of this year’s ROY help their teams to the World Series.