For the most part Chicago sports fans don’t talk that much about the NHL draft, however if they did, I expect they’d use the terminology of the other three major sports.

And no matter what particular measurables the experts use to gauge a player’s likelihood of professional success, it’s still pretty subjective. Notice how I’ve avoided the term “prospect.” The folks that study amateur athletes speak in terms of their floors and ceilings-indicating high and low bars/expectations. While some of the better-known experts have charts and rankings, their idea of success and failure is still subjective. Not everyone drafted in the first round is guaranteed a successful (let alone a HOF) career. Usually, all a first-round selection guarantees is a longer look than later round picks. However, in recent weeks I’ve seen more 1st-round picks signing minor league deals with invites to ML camp than in years past. More of these guys are recent failures.

The experts often disagree on what a particular player’s floor and ceiling are, so it’s easy to see how people making those choices for professional sports teams might not agree on players’ ultimate value. And as great as a collegiate athlete may be, that success doesn’t always translate to the big leagues.

I offer Keston Hiura, former 1st-round pick of the Brewers and current Tigers invite. Taken with the 9th overall pick out of Cal-Irvine in 2017, he was one of the best hitters in recent college history. All the experts liked his bat to ball skill and ability to drive the ball to the gaps. In what would amount to a full season (143 games) split between AAA SAT and Milwaukee, he hit 38 homers, with 95 RBI and .300+/ and a ton of strikeouts, his ML numbers dropped significantly as he fell in love with the homer.

Keston Hiura Stats, Age, Position, Height, Weight, Fantasy & News | MLB.com

It would seem that he already hit his ML ceiling that first season and that he’s been battling to elevate his floor. If you want to access his minor league stats, you’ll note, he appears to be the typical 4A player, one that strikes out way too much.

Deciding which amateur athlete (prospect) to draft is more difficult than choosing between free agents because the latter have backs of ball cards to compare. That being what it is, I’m confused as to why Anthony Rizzo has no takers on the market this spring and guys like Joey Gallo and Jake Bauers have spring gigs with the White Sox and Brewers respectively. I’m betting that Rizzo is not willing to ink a minor league deal with the requisite invite. Rizzo has been on the decline for a few years, but Bauer and Gallo’s peaks were never that high.

Full disclosure, I was in the pro-Hiura camp because of his ball to bat skill. I didn’t think he‘d fall prey to the Mike Fontenot syndrome.