My point in typing this right now is not to jinx any pitcher hoping to make a ML club this season. Rather, I’m focusing on three current pitchers whose first regular season starts are doubtful at best. I’ll bet two or three more guys get added to the list by the end of the week.

Justin Velander, Lucas Giolito, and Sonny Gray are all currently injured and their opening day status is questionable at best. Each of these guys entered ST with high expectations. The other day I asked a friend who he thought might be among the first to fall victim to the injury bug. With the supply of quality (highly paid) starting pitchers always dwindling the demand increases.

I’m not sure whether the Astros, Red Sox and Cardinals are in the market for the two biggest free agent names on the market, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell-both of whom thought they were shoe-ins to cash in after very nice performances in their “walk years.” Coincidentally, both are represented by Scott Boras. Snell won the NL CY (his second) and Montgomery helped the Rangers win their first World Series.

The other pitcher on the market who thought he would garner more interest after a second, one-year free agent deal fell short. Michael Lorenzen signed a one-year $6.75 million contract with the Angels for the 2022 season and another one last year ($8.5m) with the Tigers. His 2023 season was a microcosm of his uneven ML career. Editor’s note: I say this with no malice for Michael as I did a feature on him when he was a Reds prospect. At that time, he wanted to be Shohei Ohtani and play the field and start. Furthermore, when he left college, his goal was to move from the pen to the rotation.

He got off to a decent, bur unremarkable start with the Tigers and earned his first AS appearance before being traded to the Phillies. His 11-appearance stint with Philadelphia had its moments, most notably, an August no-hitter against the Nationals. Even with a no-hitter and AS game under his belt, he still only posted a 9-9 record with a 4.18 ERA. More importantly, the teams only were 14-15 in his appearances-so not much on the VAT. Including the no-hitter, only 2 of his 7 starts for the Phillies were positive. I’ve not heard it from his mouth, but I’ve read where he wants a 2-year deal (understandable, but maybe not warranted) for the upcoming season.

Signing a third consecutive, one-year, prove it deal, probably isn’t attractive, but it might be his only opportunity. Some people are suggesting collusion, but given how Verlander, Gray and Giolito are highly paid, injured starters, owners may not wish to add more multi-year deals to their roster.

Syncing up what players want and what teams are willing to pay is something fans and the media can only theorize about. It’s beyond our pay grade. I’m just glad the Cubs haven’t fallen victim to the starting pitcher injury bug, yet.