I spent much of Friday formulating the greatest post on starting pitchers and how the better managers manipulate(d) rotations to win series. I had years of examples before analytics became the rage and matchups were analyzed by everyone but the folks in the dugout.
Because many teams rely on behind the scene info to determine daily lineup construction, it’s become more difficult to evaluate any manager on that ability. When individual managers lack the autonomy to construct a day’s lineup, one wonders what tactical skills one needs anymore.
Whether a four-, five- or six-man rotation, managers used to set rotations for specific series with particular teams. Some teams were notorious for lining things up so ace would face ace. National television loved the big game between two aces-even a lousy outcome would have some initial drama and eyeballs.
While never stated, other teams sought to protect certain pitchers by starting them against lesser pitchers. And despite what we are led to believe by the experts, teams have their own rotation hierarchies that don’t always align with what we think.
The better managers use the analytics and follow trends, like which pitcher is most likely to succeed against a particular lineup with no regard to the opposing starting pitcher.
Earlier this week the Diamondbacks sent Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly to face the lowly Mets in New York instead of setting the rotation up so that they could face the Cubs this weekend.
Typically, when you only have a handful of games remaining (and you are in the mix for a postseason berth) you try and have your best pitchers pitching as often as possible. Of course, the Mets shellacked Gallen and Kelly-Arizona lost both games.
David Ross set things up so that Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jordan Wicks would face the Diamondbacks in Arizona. With the two best starters out of the way, the Cubs should have a clearer path to victory, right?
Some guy named Brandon Pfaadt, took the bump for Arizona last night. The 24-year-old entered the start with a 1-8 record and 6.25 ERA. Steele entered the game, the frontrunner for the NL CY. Like nobody outside of the Pfaadt family predicted, Arizona whomped on Steele pretty good and they defeated the Cubs 6-4.
Something about the best laid plans. The Cubs should bounce back and win the series because they have the better starting pitching. Right?