Because we’re only days away from the official trade deadline, the importance of deals made at or right before are conflated. It’s a matter of proximity or recency bias. Historically, teams have made significant in-season moves months before the deadline that have had greater impact on pennant races (and beyond).

Some trades have to be made and not for the immediate reasons most assume. The traders often need to make the move then and there because the players they’re trading have no value at the end of the season. Teams like the 2023 White Sox need to dump 120% of their rosters right now because they stink on toast. They might not get fair returns, but they might not do any better in September or November.

No matter how well or poorly a player may play leading up to the deadline, how he’ll do after the trade is a crapshoot at best. There are plenty of recent examples of trades working out for the chasers and some that favor the trader. The best trades benefit both teams-whether in the present or down the line. What looks great today, may look like garbage down the road.

Cynical media types point to the Doyle Alexander-John Smoltz trade as decidedly lopsided in the Braves favor. At the time the Tigers did very well as Alexander went 9-0 in 11 starts. The Tigers won the AL East but lost to the Twins in the ALCS. Alexander pitched decently for the next two seasons, but the Tigers never won it all. Smoltz went on to a HOF career with Atlanta and won a WS title with them.

In assessing the Angels-White Sox recent trade, it’s only natural to look at the deal that brought Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez (and Dane Dunning) to the Sox in the first place. The trio was acquired in a trade with the Nationals for much not-beloved Adam Eaton. It seemed like and was a great haul for an okay ballplayer. Lopez and Giolito pitched very well for Chicago and Dunning was traded for another piece to the puzzle that never was completed. And for all of his issues, Eaton was a key on the 2019 Nats team that won it all.

Objectively speaking as a baseball fan, Giolito was a plus player for the asset and more likeable guy than not. Given their ability to assess and develop talent, his presence will be missed on the other side of town.

Who knows how well the assets the Sox got back will do. We can all pretend expertise, but nobody knows how Ky Bush and Edgar Quero will ever do for the Sox. I’ll bet fans in Anaheim and Chicago will be monitoring every start Giolito makes the rest of the season. Even if he were to win every start, there’s no guarantee the Angels will make the postseason.

When positions players are traded to contender/pretenders, fans and the media usually look at the totality of the player’s “second season” because they have a larger, day to day block of stats. With starting pitchers, each start will be under the microscope.

I’m still the only person in North America that doesn’t believe the Cubs really benefited from the Jose Quintana trade. If the White Sox never win it all with Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez, I guess the trade could be considered a wash. The trade offered both teams (and fanbases) hope though. Sometimes hope and a change of scenery is good enough.

Many fans consider the trade deadline to be the best time of the year because of the action, chaos, and potential. Count me among those and rest assured, I’ll have thoughts on most of the deals made and moves never consummated.