Every baseball season there’s another guy that can throw a fastball through a brick wall and unfortunately there’s a handful of guys that burn out quickly. Fans and the medial love guys with 100 mph fastballs almost as much as sluggers. Unfortunately for the former, some hitters have no problem hitting the heater.

Pitching is much more than throwing the ball faster than a speeding bullet and as we’ve learned in the last 15 years or so, it’s much harder to throw that hard for longer than a baseball minute. Teams really don’t care how quickly they burn through young arms. They’ve convinced themselves that they are replaceable can be better after Tommy John surgery. The last part is a fallacy, as most bounce backs are short lived at best.

If one were to bet today’s Reds-Cubs game, based solely on stuff and velocity, smart money would suggest taking Hunter Greene, and the Reds (small print). Before the Reds signed and drafted the 23-year-old Greene, the experts were marveling at the young, two-way star and his arm. I have no doubt that Greene will flash brightly today, but I”ll take the much savvier and more polished Justin Steele. The Cubs are as apt to smoke some 100+mph fastballs onto Waveland as they are to chase sliders in the dirt.

Sometimes flash wins out, but not often enough to be one’s earnings.