At some point in the next week, family and friends will begin asking me how the 2023 Cubs will fare. I won’t feign ignorance because I didn’t spend time in Arizona this spring, nor will I use that as an excuse when my predictions fall short.

Call it coincidence, but I’ve only seen the Cubs win this March and my thinking is clouded by this biased view. Despite my confidence in the Cubs, I won’t be placing any of my hard earned do re mi on the Cubs,

Without spending any time in Arizona, I can only look at last year’s team and their win-loss record (74-88) and note how well they played and pitched down the stretch. I have to take the Cubs at their word and accept that all of their pitchers are on the upswing and that 2022 was not a blip, but rather is a sign of what’s to come.

Most sports fans accept the fact that the various sportsbooks usually hit upon the lines and in the case of the Cubs, the over-under is76.5 wins-which was also the PECOTA prediction. At the very least, I think the Cubs are good for at least 3 more wins than last season.

I’ll argue that their starting rotation and bullpen are better than last year. I think Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer are great veteran additions. The acquisition of Jameson Taillon is a plus and Justin Steele is only going to get better.

The infield defense is going to improve markedly with the addition of Dansby Swanson at short, and the outfield has already improved with Cody Bellinger in center. Overall, Bellinger is a low-risk, high-reward offensive threat who needs to produce big time for that next, long-term contract. Instead of relying on placeholders that mean well, Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini should provide some pop and a veteran stability.

Heading into the season, the Cubs are reasonably healthy. Only Kyle Hendricks and Seiya Suzuki start the season on the injured list. Given his recent injury history I’m not sure what they expect from Hendricks and Suzuki hasn’t proven himself to be that durable or productive.

I’ll be surprised if the Cubs don’t reach 81 wins, but won’t bet on it.