I’m pretty sure that Charlies Dickens wasn’t thinking about the upcoming MLB season back in 1860, but the title is applicable just the same.

A few days before the gladiators competing in this year’s Big Game, earned their spots, a host on a local sports radio show mistakenly talked about the over-under for the White Sox and Cubs.

Ordinarily, this news would spark interest or outrage in the local fans hearts. At the time, the host didn’t specify which betting site set the numbers, but after a couple weeks of digging, I ascertained it was FanDuel. Initially what surprised me most was the lack of interest in the subject. Common sense took over and I remembered all that matters if the NFL and the Bears.

The release of win totals and the over-under is meant to drive betting. Sports media uses this information (even three weeks before spring training) to drive interest in the local teams. 73.4 % of all sports fans believe the books have misjudged their teams prospects. 84.9% of those same fans will bet the over no matter the number. We always figure, our team is better regardless of the number. Cub fans always bet the over.

If you aren’t a better you still use the disrespect to your advantage when arguing the point with friends. Most baseball fans don’t much care about the predictions for their team’s lesser rivals. I think most columnists and baseball writers use these numbers do construct their first stories/arguments for the coming season.

Players and managers pretend they don’t pay attention to the numbers, yet more often than not the predictions will be posted in clubhouses as added motivation.

Does anyone believe that every single person in Philadelphia and Bucks County isn’t aware that the Eagles are “only” 1.5 point favorites in tomorrow’s game? The team is using this slight as fodder for their delicate egos too.

Earlier today I caught 35 minutes of a White Sox radio show where the host talked about Fangraphs ZiPS system-a sim-system that plays gazillions of games fueled by various numbers in order to predict player and team performance,

Were it not for the host, I wouldn’t have been able to find out the Sox are supposed to win 74 games this year. There’s a stable of FanGraph apostles that will convert the numbers into logical predictions. You must have to subscribe or something in order to access these numbers. I was also unable to find their predictions for the 2022 season. It’s all pretty hollow if you can’t check on their work.

This isn’t meant as a criticism of the White Sox, rather I’m using their expected won-loss projections as an example. I had hoped the release of this information would excite baseball fans. FanDuel set the over-under for the White Sox at 83.5 wins, an improvement of 2.5 games over the 81 wins of 2022 and FanGraph projection of 74 wins.

Leet’s pretend the Sox upset FanGraph’s applecart and win 81 games like last year. Would Sox fans rejoice that their new manager bettered the projection by 7 games or would it be a disappointment? I’m guessing the latter and expect only beating the 83.5 FanDuel # would make Sox fans happy.

A fan could look at any set of projections and find fault with the specifics. In the coming weeks, I’ll probably examine the numbers and make the case for several upsets although I won’t be betting on it.

A couple seasons ago a friend an eye tried to guess which teams would have the greatest variance from their projected lines. Suffice to say, baseball intervened and some favorites let each of us down, and only a couple teams surprised us on the positive side.